China & the USA: Conflict, Competition & Cooperation
China & the USA: Conflict, Competition & Cooperation
By DR. BASHIR AHMAD VEERI
Trade disputes, a major cyber attack, accident at sea, or misstep on the Korean Peninsula could easily spark a major war.
Former US Secretary of State Dr.
Henry Kissinger, a reputed China
expert, having 40 years of direct
interaction with four generations
of Chinese leaders has said:
“The
incoming Biden administration should
move quickly to restore lines of commu-
nication with China that frayed during
the Trump years or risk a crisis that
could escalate into military confl ict….
Unless there is some basis for some coop-
erative action, the world will slide into a
catastrophe comparable to World War
I and military technologies available
today would make such a crisis “even
more diffi cult to control” than those of
earlier eras”.
Similarly, Graham Allison, eminent
Harvard Professor states that China &
United States are heading towards a
war neither wants. ‘Thucydides Trap’
holds: When a rising power threatens
to displace a ruling one, violence is the
likeliest result. As has been observed
over the past fi ve hundred years, such
conditions have occurred sixteen times
& war broke out in twelve. Today, as
an unstoppable China approaches an
immovable America, and both Xi Jin-
ping and outgoing Donald Trump are on
confrontational path promising respec-
tive country men to make their countries
“great again”. Trade disputes, a major
cyber attack, accident at sea, or misstep
on the Korean Peninsula could easily
spark a major war.
The two major economies of world-G2
(US & China) together represent about
40% of the world’s GDP & 50% of its mili-
tary spending. Both the countries were
thought to be ever more bound together
by their interdependence: Integrated
supply chains ( i-phones designed in the
US but manufactured in China), total
trade in 2018 ( before the trade war) of
$738 billion, $116 billion of US investment
in China and Chinese investment in the
USA totaling $60 billion & more around
4 lakh Chinese students in US Universi-
ties, contributing $13 billion on the US
economy.
Former US President Clinton would
call China’s joining of WTO ( World
Trade Organization of 135 nations) in
2001 as “one of the most important for-
eign policy developments” which in fact
opened the markets of two countries
for trade and business between them.
But the ‘WTO consensus’ has broken
down and engagement is giving way
to estrangement, trade wars, confl ict
over economic & security issues, talks
of “decoupling” of the two economies,
an arms race, and battle for economic
models & indeed for primacy in the rest
of this century which is evolving in a new
cold war like situation albeit of a differ-
ent kind. However, the terrible human &
economic costs of the novel Coronavirus
epidemic in 2020 led to real decoupling as
travel was canceled & trade constrained,
recriminations mounted, and hostility
reached a new level.
China has become what Britain had
been during industrial revolution, the
manufacturing ‘workshop of the world’
producing almost 50% of world steel, alu-
minum, computers, necessary gadgets
for electric vehicles & wind turbines.
China consumed more cement than the
United States did in the entire twentieth
century & holds foreign reserves totaling
$3 trillion. In Year 2000 China sold 1.9 mil-
lion cars whereas USA sold 17.3 million.
In the year 2019 number was 25 million
for China & 17 million for the US. In 2002
China had 4% of world GDP which was
16% in early 2020. China has emerged as
largest economy of the world. However it
is the energy sector where USA got push
due to Shale revolution whereas China
has to import 75% of oil for its use.
The rivalry between two countries is
evident in military capabilities. Over last
two decades China’s military expendi-
ture have grown six fold which is $240
billion & the third & fourth spenders are
far behind i.e., Saudi Arabia & Russia
each around $65 billion. According to
RAND Corporation assessment, China’s
military has transformed itself into a
capable modern military power focusing
on development of a wide variety of mis-
siles, air defense, & electronic capabili-
ties that could neutralize US capabilities
from ships to satellites thus narrowing
the gap with US. Moreover advantage
of proximity in most plausible confl ict
scenarios & geographical advantage will
likely neutralize many US strengths. Xi
demonstrated China’s great power status
while hosting 29 leaders of other coun-
tries at Beijing forum. He made it clear
that China, unlike US, would not lecture
them about Human Rights nor support
democracy activists & maintained, “We
have no intention to interfere in other
countries internal affairs, export our
own social system or impose our own
will.”
USA military is also making a major
shift in focus, strategy & weapons. The US
marines, for instance, are going through
a transformation as an agile naval expe-
ditionary force able to move with great
speed & in dispersed fashion from island
to island in the Pacifi c in order to neu-
tralize a Chinese navy that is capable of
attacking traditional US military assets.
The rivalry is most evident in South
China Sea which involves geographic
maps & is considered, the greatest point
of tension, as well as ‘Belt and Road Ini-
tiative’ representing an effort to redraw
the map of the Global economy. The other
danger points are Taiwan which China
describes as of “Core interest” & can go to
war to prevent its interest. The strategic
islands of northeast Taiwan that both
China and Japan claim, North Korea &
its nuclear weapons and missile program
are of great concerns.
US-China relations are at their lowest
in decades, despite the two sides reaching
a “phase one” trade deal at the start of the
year. Since then, the virus outbreak that
began in Wuhan, China, has gone global,
killing more than 1.3 million people and
crushing economies around the world.
President Trump has squarely blamed
China for spread of Virus and death
toll in US which has further worsened
the scenario. Following crackdown on
Hong Kong law makers by China, the US
imposed sanctions on 31 fi rms & blamed
them to be operated by Peoples Libera-
tion Army of China.
Coming to Dr. Kissinger again,
“Trump has a more confrontational
method of negotiation than you can apply
indefi nitely”. A military confl ict between
the two powers would be a global disas-
ter. Instead of confrontation, both sides
must create institutional mechanisms to
remain engaged and address each other’s
grievances. Relations with China may
dominate the foreign policy agenda of
President-elect Joe Biden’s administra-
tion. He’s expected to seek ways to defuse
tensions in areas including the future of
5G technology; China’s expansionism in
the South China Sea and Hong Kong’s
fading autonomy. The two nations’ lead-
ers need to recognize that they see the
same issues very differently, and that
colors their approach to talks.
Former US Secretary of State Dr.
Henry Kissinger, a reputed China
expert, having 40 years of direct
interaction with four generations
of Chinese leaders has said: “The
incoming Biden administration should
move quickly to restore lines of commu-
nication with China that frayed during
the Trump years or risk a crisis that
could escalate into military confl ict….
Unless there is some basis for some coop-
erative action, the world will slide into a
catastrophe comparable to World War
I and military technologies available
today would make such a crisis “even
more diffi cult to control” than those of
earlier eras”.
Similarly, Graham Allison, eminent
Harvard Professor states that China &
United States are heading towards a
war neither wants. ‘Thucydides Trap’
holds: When a rising power threatens
to displace a ruling one, violence is the
likeliest result. As has been observed
over the past fi ve hundred years, such
conditions have occurred sixteen times
& war broke out in twelve. Today, as
an unstoppable China approaches an
immovable America, and both Xi Jin-
ping and outgoing Donald Trump are on
confrontational path promising respec-
tive country men to make their countries
“great again”. Trade disputes, a major
cyber attack, accident at sea, or misstep
on the Korean Peninsula could easily
spark a major war.
The two major economies of world-G2
(US & China) together represent about
40% of the world’s GDP & 50% of its mili-
tary spending. Both the countries were
thought to be ever more bound together
by their interdependence: Integrated
supply chains ( i-phones designed in the
US but manufactured in China), total
trade in 2018 ( before the trade war) of
$738 billion, $116 billion of US investment
in China and Chinese investment in the
USA totaling $60 billion & more around
4 lakh Chinese students in US Universi-
ties, contributing $13 billion on the US
economy.
Former US President Clinton would
call China’s joining of WTO ( World
Trade Organization of 135 nations) in
2001 as “one of the most important for-
eign policy developments” which in fact
opened the markets of two countries
for trade and business between them.
But the ‘WTO consensus’ has broken
down and engagement is giving way
to estrangement, trade wars, confl ict
over economic & security issues, talks
of “decoupling” of the two economies,
an arms race, and battle for economic
models & indeed for primacy in the rest
of this century which is evolving in a new
cold war like situation albeit of a differ-
ent kind. However, the terrible human &
economic costs of the novel Coronavirus
epidemic in 2020 led to real decoupling as
travel was canceled & trade constrained,
recriminations mounted, and hostility
reached a new level.
China has become what Britain had
been during industrial revolution, the
manufacturing ‘workshop of the world’
producing almost 50% of world steel, alu-
minum, computers, necessary gadgets
for electric vehicles & wind turbines.
China consumed more cement than the
United States did in the entire twentieth
century & holds foreign reserves totaling
$3 trillion. In Year 2000 China sold 1.9 mil-
lion cars whereas USA sold 17.3 million.
In the year 2019 number was 25 million
for China & 17 million for the US. In 2002
China had 4% of world GDP which was
16% in early 2020. China has emerged as
largest economy of the world. However it
is the energy sector where USA got push
due to Shale revolution whereas China
has to import 75% of oil for its use.
The rivalry between two countries is
evident in military capabilities. Over last
two decades China’s military expendi-
ture have grown six fold which is $240
billion & the third & fourth spenders are
far behind i.e., Saudi Arabia & Russia
each around $65 billion. According to
RAND Corporation assessment, China’s
military has transformed itself into a
capable modern military power focusing
on development of a wide variety of mis-
siles, air defense, & electronic capabili-
ties that could neutralize US capabilities
from ships to satellites thus narrowing
the gap with US. Moreover advantage
of proximity in most plausible confl ict
scenarios & geographical advantage will
likely neutralize many US strengths. Xi
demonstrated China’s great power status
while hosting 29 leaders of other coun-
tries at Beijing forum. He made it clear
that China, unlike US, would not lecture
them about Human Rights nor support
democracy activists & maintained, “We
have no intention to interfere in other
countries internal affairs, export our
own social system or impose our own
will.”
USA military is also making a major
shift in focus, strategy & weapons. The US
marines, for instance, are going through
a transformation as an agile naval expe-
ditionary force able to move with great
speed & in dispersed fashion from island
to island in the Pacifi c in order to neu-
tralize a Chinese navy that is capable of
attacking traditional US military assets.
The rivalry is most evident in South
China Sea which involves geographic
maps & is considered, the greatest point
of tension, as well as ‘Belt and Road Ini-
tiative’ representing an effort to redraw
the map of the Global economy. The other
danger points are Taiwan which China
describes as of “Core interest” & can go to
war to prevent its interest. The strategic
islands of northeast Taiwan that both
China and Japan claim, North Korea &
its nuclear weapons and missile program
are of great concerns.
US-China relations are at their lowest
in decades, despite the two sides reaching
a “phase one” trade deal at the start of the
year. Since then, the virus outbreak that
began in Wuhan, China, has gone global,
killing more than 1.3 million people and
crushing economies around the world.
President Trump has squarely blamed
China for spread of Virus and death
toll in US which has further worsened
the scenario. Following crackdown on
Hong Kong law makers by China, the US
imposed sanctions on 31 fi rms & blamed
them to be operated by Peoples Libera-
tion Army of China.
Coming to Dr. Kissinger again,
“Trump has a more confrontational
method of negotiation than you can apply
indefi nitely”. A military confl ict between
the two powers would be a global disas-
ter. Instead of confrontation, both sides
must create institutional mechanisms to
remain engaged and address each other’s
grievances. Relations with China may
dominate the foreign policy agenda of
President-elect Joe Biden’s administra-
tion. He’s expected to seek ways to defuse
tensions in areas including the future of
5G technology; China’s expansionism in
the South China Sea and Hong Kong’s
fading autonomy. The two nations’ lead-
ers need to recognize that they see the
same issues very differently, and that
colors their approach to talks.
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