China & the USA: Conflict, Competition & Cooperation

China & the USA: Conflict, Competition & Cooperation

By DR. BASHIR AHMAD VEERI

Trade disputes, a major cyber attack, accident at sea, or misstep on the Korean Peninsula could easily spark a major war.

Former US Secretary of State Dr. 

Henry Kissinger, a reputed China 

expert, having 40 years of direct 

interaction with four generations 

of Chinese leaders has said:

 “The 

incoming Biden administration should 

move quickly to restore lines of commu-

nication with China that frayed during 

the Trump years or risk a crisis that 

could escalate into military confl ict….

Unless there is some basis for some coop-

erative action, the world will slide into a 

catastrophe comparable to World War 

I and military technologies available 

today would make such a crisis “even 

more diffi cult to control” than those of 

earlier eras”. 

Similarly, Graham Allison, eminent 

Harvard Professor states that China & 

United States are heading towards a 

war neither wants. ‘Thucydides Trap’ 

holds: When a rising power threatens 

to displace a ruling one, violence is the 

likeliest result. As has been observed 

over the past fi ve hundred years, such 

conditions have occurred sixteen times 

& war broke out in twelve. Today, as 

an unstoppable China approaches an 

immovable America, and both Xi Jin-

ping and outgoing Donald Trump are on 

confrontational path promising respec-

tive country men to make their countries 

“great again”. Trade disputes, a major 

cyber attack, accident at sea, or misstep 

on the Korean Peninsula could easily 

spark a major war. 

The two major economies of world-G2 

(US & China) together represent about 

40% of the world’s GDP & 50% of its mili-

tary spending. Both the countries were 

thought to be ever more bound together 

by their interdependence: Integrated 

supply chains ( i-phones designed in the 

US but manufactured in China), total 

trade in 2018 ( before the trade war) of 

$738 billion, $116 billion of US investment 

in China and Chinese investment in the 

USA totaling $60 billion & more around 

4 lakh Chinese students in US Universi-

ties, contributing $13 billion on the US 

economy. 

Former US President Clinton would 

call China’s joining of WTO ( World 

Trade Organization of 135 nations) in 

2001 as “one of the most important for-

eign policy developments” which in fact 

opened the markets of two countries 

for trade and business between them. 

But the ‘WTO consensus’ has broken 

down and engagement is giving way 

to estrangement, trade wars, confl ict 

over economic & security issues, talks 

of “decoupling” of the two economies, 

an arms race, and battle for economic 

models & indeed for primacy in the rest 

of this century which is evolving in a new 

cold war like situation albeit of a differ-

ent kind. However, the terrible human & 

economic costs of the novel Coronavirus 

epidemic in 2020 led to real decoupling as 

travel was canceled & trade constrained, 

recriminations mounted, and hostility 

reached a new level. 

China has become what Britain had 

been during industrial revolution, the 

manufacturing ‘workshop of the world’ 

producing almost 50% of world steel, alu-

minum, computers, necessary gadgets 

for electric vehicles & wind turbines. 

China consumed more cement than the 

United States did in the entire twentieth 

century & holds foreign reserves totaling 

$3 trillion. In Year 2000 China sold 1.9 mil-

lion cars whereas USA sold 17.3 million. 

In the year 2019 number was 25 million 

for China & 17 million for the US. In 2002 

China had 4% of world GDP which was 

16% in early 2020. China has emerged as 

largest economy of the world. However it 

is the energy sector where USA got push 

due to Shale revolution whereas China 

has to import 75% of oil for its use.

The rivalry between two countries is 

evident in military capabilities. Over last 

two decades China’s military expendi-

ture have grown six fold which is $240 

billion & the third & fourth spenders are 

far behind i.e., Saudi Arabia & Russia 

each around $65 billion. According to 

RAND Corporation assessment, China’s 

military has transformed itself into a 

capable modern military power focusing 

on development of a wide variety of mis-

siles, air defense, & electronic capabili-

ties that could neutralize US capabilities 

from ships to satellites thus narrowing 

the gap with US. Moreover advantage 

of proximity in most plausible confl ict 

scenarios & geographical advantage will 

likely neutralize many US strengths. Xi 

demonstrated China’s great power status 

while hosting 29 leaders of other coun-

tries at Beijing forum. He made it clear 

that China, unlike US, would not lecture 

them about Human Rights nor support 

democracy activists & maintained, “We 

have no intention to interfere in other 

countries internal affairs, export our 

own social system or impose our own 

will.” 

USA military is also making a major 

shift in focus, strategy & weapons. The US 

marines, for instance, are going through 

a transformation as an agile naval expe-

ditionary force able to move with great 

speed & in dispersed fashion from island 

to island in the Pacifi c in order to neu-

tralize a Chinese navy that is capable of 

attacking traditional US military assets. 

The rivalry is most evident in South 

China Sea which involves geographic 

maps & is considered, the greatest point 

of tension, as well as ‘Belt and Road Ini-

tiative’ representing an effort to redraw 

the map of the Global economy. The other 

danger points are Taiwan which China 

describes as of “Core interest” & can go to 

war to prevent its interest. The strategic 

islands of northeast Taiwan that both 

China and Japan claim, North Korea & 

its nuclear weapons and missile program 

are of great concerns.

US-China relations are at their lowest 

in decades, despite the two sides reaching 

a “phase one” trade deal at the start of the 

year. Since then, the virus outbreak that 

began in Wuhan, China, has gone global, 

killing more than 1.3 million people and 

crushing economies around the world. 

President Trump has squarely blamed 

China for spread of Virus and death 

toll in US which has further worsened 

the scenario. Following crackdown on 

Hong Kong law makers by China, the US 

imposed sanctions on 31 fi rms & blamed 

them to be operated by Peoples Libera-

tion Army of China. 

Coming to Dr. Kissinger again, 

“Trump has a more confrontational 

method of negotiation than you can apply 

indefi nitely”. A military confl ict between 

the two powers would be a global disas-

ter. Instead of confrontation, both sides 

must create institutional mechanisms to 

remain engaged and address each other’s 

grievances. Relations with China may 

dominate the foreign policy agenda of 

President-elect Joe Biden’s administra-

tion. He’s expected to seek ways to defuse 

tensions in areas including the future of 

5G technology; China’s expansionism in 

the South China Sea and Hong Kong’s 

fading autonomy. The two nations’ lead-

ers need to recognize that they see the 

same issues very differently, and that 

colors their approach to talks.

Former US Secretary of State Dr. 

Henry Kissinger, a reputed China 

expert, having 40 years of direct 

interaction with four generations 

of Chinese leaders has said: “The 

incoming Biden administration should 

move quickly to restore lines of commu-

nication with China that frayed during 

the Trump years or risk a crisis that 

could escalate into military confl ict….

Unless there is some basis for some coop-

erative action, the world will slide into a 

catastrophe comparable to World War 

I and military technologies available 

today would make such a crisis “even 

more diffi cult to control” than those of 

earlier eras”. 

Similarly, Graham Allison, eminent 

Harvard Professor states that China & 

United States are heading towards a 

war neither wants. ‘Thucydides Trap’ 

holds: When a rising power threatens 

to displace a ruling one, violence is the 

likeliest result. As has been observed 

over the past fi ve hundred years, such 

conditions have occurred sixteen times 

& war broke out in twelve. Today, as 

an unstoppable China approaches an 

immovable America, and both Xi Jin-

ping and outgoing Donald Trump are on 

confrontational path promising respec-

tive country men to make their countries 

“great again”. Trade disputes, a major 

cyber attack, accident at sea, or misstep 

on the Korean Peninsula could easily 

spark a major war. 

The two major economies of world-G2 

(US & China) together represent about 

40% of the world’s GDP & 50% of its mili-

tary spending. Both the countries were 

thought to be ever more bound together 

by their interdependence: Integrated 

supply chains ( i-phones designed in the 

US but manufactured in China), total 

trade in 2018 ( before the trade war) of 

$738 billion, $116 billion of US investment 

in China and Chinese investment in the 

USA totaling $60 billion & more around 

4 lakh Chinese students in US Universi-

ties, contributing $13 billion on the US 

economy. 

Former US President Clinton would 

call China’s joining of WTO ( World 

Trade Organization of 135 nations) in 

2001 as “one of the most important for-

eign policy developments” which in fact 

opened the markets of two countries 

for trade and business between them. 

But the ‘WTO consensus’ has broken 

down and engagement is giving way 

to estrangement, trade wars, confl ict 

over economic & security issues, talks 

of “decoupling” of the two economies, 

an arms race, and battle for economic 

models & indeed for primacy in the rest 

of this century which is evolving in a new 

cold war like situation albeit of a differ-

ent kind. However, the terrible human & 

economic costs of the novel Coronavirus 

epidemic in 2020 led to real decoupling as 

travel was canceled & trade constrained, 

recriminations mounted, and hostility 

reached a new level. 

China has become what Britain had 

been during industrial revolution, the 

manufacturing ‘workshop of the world’ 

producing almost 50% of world steel, alu-

minum, computers, necessary gadgets 

for electric vehicles & wind turbines. 

China consumed more cement than the 

United States did in the entire twentieth 

century & holds foreign reserves totaling 

$3 trillion. In Year 2000 China sold 1.9 mil-

lion cars whereas USA sold 17.3 million. 

In the year 2019 number was 25 million 

for China & 17 million for the US. In 2002 

China had 4% of world GDP which was 

16% in early 2020. China has emerged as 

largest economy of the world. However it 

is the energy sector where USA got push 

due to Shale revolution whereas China 

has to import 75% of oil for its use.

The rivalry between two countries is 

evident in military capabilities. Over last 

two decades China’s military expendi-

ture have grown six fold which is $240 

billion & the third & fourth spenders are 

far behind i.e., Saudi Arabia & Russia 

each around $65 billion. According to 

RAND Corporation assessment, China’s 

military has transformed itself into a 

capable modern military power focusing 

on development of a wide variety of mis-

siles, air defense, & electronic capabili-

ties that could neutralize US capabilities 

from ships to satellites thus narrowing 

the gap with US. Moreover advantage 

of proximity in most plausible confl ict 

scenarios & geographical advantage will 

likely neutralize many US strengths. Xi 

demonstrated China’s great power status 

while hosting 29 leaders of other coun-

tries at Beijing forum. He made it clear 

that China, unlike US, would not lecture 

them about Human Rights nor support 

democracy activists & maintained, “We 

have no intention to interfere in other 

countries internal affairs, export our 

own social system or impose our own 

will.” 

USA military is also making a major 

shift in focus, strategy & weapons. The US 

marines, for instance, are going through 

a transformation as an agile naval expe-

ditionary force able to move with great 

speed & in dispersed fashion from island 

to island in the Pacifi c in order to neu-

tralize a Chinese navy that is capable of 

attacking traditional US military assets. 

The rivalry is most evident in South 

China Sea which involves geographic 

maps & is considered, the greatest point 

of tension, as well as ‘Belt and Road Ini-

tiative’ representing an effort to redraw 

the map of the Global economy. The other 

danger points are Taiwan which China 

describes as of “Core interest” & can go to 

war to prevent its interest. The strategic 

islands of northeast Taiwan that both 

China and Japan claim, North Korea & 

its nuclear weapons and missile program 

are of great concerns.

US-China relations are at their lowest 

in decades, despite the two sides reaching 

a “phase one” trade deal at the start of the 

year. Since then, the virus outbreak that 

began in Wuhan, China, has gone global, 

killing more than 1.3 million people and 

crushing economies around the world. 

President Trump has squarely blamed 

China for spread of Virus and death 

toll in US which has further worsened 

the scenario. Following crackdown on 

Hong Kong law makers by China, the US 

imposed sanctions on 31 fi rms & blamed 

them to be operated by Peoples Libera-

tion Army of China. 

Coming to Dr. Kissinger again, 

“Trump has a more confrontational 

method of negotiation than you can apply 

indefi nitely”. A military confl ict between 

the two powers would be a global disas-

ter. Instead of confrontation, both sides 

must create institutional mechanisms to 

remain engaged and address each other’s 

grievances. Relations with China may 

dominate the foreign policy agenda of 

President-elect Joe Biden’s administra-

tion. He’s expected to seek ways to defuse 

tensions in areas including the future of 

5G technology; China’s expansionism in 

the South China Sea and Hong Kong’s 

fading autonomy. The two nations’ lead-

ers need to recognize that they see the 

same issues very differently, and that 

colors their approach to talks.